Over the past decade, the avocado industry in Kenya has undergone accelerated expansion, establishing itself as the largest producer on the African continent and a strategic pillar of the country’s agricultural exports. This momentum has seen production rise from modest levels to exceeding 585,000 tonnes in 2024, driven by the increase in cultivated area and robust demand in international markets.

The sector’s success is based on the region’s favourable climatic conditions and the leading role of smallholder farmers, who sustain the majority of the national supply. Furthermore, institutional strengthening—through technical training and the improvement of planting materials—has been key to increasing yields.

However, the sector’s growth has not been linear. Dependence on water availability makes it vulnerable to climate variability, as evidenced by the slight contraction observed in 2024, attributed to adverse weather conditions. Despite these fluctuations, projections indicate a swift recovery as new plantations reach their productive stage.

Despite the production boom, export potential still has significant room for improvement. Exports have grown steadily, rising from approximately 39,000 tonnes in 2015 to nearly 130,000 tonnes in 2024. Nevertheless, this volume remains low in relation to total production, as only 20% to 25% of what is produced is exported.

This limited international participation is due to significant structural challenges:

• Critical Logistics: Increased transit times to Europe—exacerbated by the crisis in the Red Sea shipping route—raise operating costs and compromise the quality of a highly perishable product.
• Deficient Infrastructure: Factors such as a weak cold chain and inconsistent quality restrict access to the most demanding global markets.
• Fragmentation: The dispersion of the production system makes the standardisation necessary to compete with powerhouses such as Peru, Mexico, and Colombia difficult.

In conclusion, while the future of avocados in Kenya is promising, its definitive consolidation as a global player will depend on its ability to transform its productive potential into added value, optimising logistical efficiency and resilience in the face of climate change.